Following the recent rally in its share price, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. NOV is the third-best performing large cap OFS stock year-to-date. However, Citi’s Scott Gruber expects the share price to fall to $30 before year's end, since expectations are likely to be revised down meaningfully for Q4 and 2017.
Gruber downgraded the rating on the company from Neutral to Sell, while lowering the price target from $37 to $30.
Gruber believes that “a trade down toward $30 is likely despite quality cash generation characteristics longer term for NOV.”
Lower Expectations
The analyst now expects a lower bottom to the active floating rig count, with the Q4 EBITDA declining from the Q3 levels.
“Some of NOV’s short cycle businesses are starting to turn the corner but the impact is limited by revenue mix while drill pipe destocking should continue for several quarters,” Gruber mentioned.
In addition, according to offshore driller capex commentary, the offshore rig aftermarket is expected to continue to decline, offsetting the benefit from domestic land rig upgrades.
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