For Public Service Enterprise, Downside May Lie Ahead

Barclays reiterated its Equal-Weight rating on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. PEG as it waits for a catalyst. The firm sees downside risk in 2019 due to lower capacity prices and a general rate case for the company.

The brokerage also cut its price target to $47 from $50.

Public Services plans to file a PSE&G distribution rate case in New Jersey by November and make the annual transmission formula rate filing by October 1.

"PSE&G is allowed a 10.3 percent ROE on electric and gas distribution, and we assume a 9.75 percent, similar to other recent outcomes in New Jersey. This is a -5 cent per share impact," analyst Gregg Orrill wrote in a note.

Related Link: Interest Rate Anxiety Leads Argus To Lower Its Price Target On Public Service Enterprise

Orrill said he models rate-base growth of 8.5 percent from 2015 to 2019 and 7.3 percent EPS growth at PSE&G from 2015 to 2019.

In addition, the analyst noted that the company maintains balance sheet capacity of up to $6 billion for regulated and $2 billion–$3 billion for unregulated investment opportunities while maintaining strong credit metrics.

"Our revised 2017 and 2018 estimates are $2.91 versus $2.80/$2.93 previously. Our $2.79 in '19 assumes growth at PSE&G despite the rate case impact and lower earnings at PSEG Power from capacity and power prices," Orrill continued.

At time of writing, shares of Public Services were down 0.28 percent at $43.51.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorPrice TargetCommoditiesReiterationMarketsAnalyst RatingsBarclaysGregg Orrill
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