Citi’s Walter H. Pritchard expects a favorable market environment for Talend SA ADR TLND, “driven by healthy underlying market growth and a competitive landscape where incumbents are distracted.”
Pritchard initiated coverage of the company with a Neutral rating and price target of $32.
Market Share
Currently, the company holds market share in the low-single digit of the $8.3 billion Data Integration segment, with a clear path to expand its share.
The analyst expects Talend to capture incremental share of 2.1 percent in the market by 2020.
Upside Priced In
Although Pritchard expects the stock to see upside through Q4:16, the recent rally seems to have “raised the bar” while pricing in any near term upside to the forecasts.
“Beyond FY16, we see risk that reported billings growth will decelerate in FY17 as a leaner 3-year renewal cycle impacts FY17. This could create false-sense of deceleration in underlying business though we note management could help mitigate this issue with clear disclosure of factors impacting billings,” the analyst cautioned.
Path To Profitability
At the same time, Pritchard pointed out that there was a clear path to profitability, with conservative expectations of operating margins of 8 percent in FY20, growing to 28 percent by FY25.
“Talend should be cash flow positive this year and shrinking ACV duration should set the stage for sustainable cash flow generation,” the analyst stated.
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