Wunderlich Previews Lionsgate Q4 Earnings

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) LGF is scheduled to report its F4Q16 results after market close today. Wunderlich’s Matthew Harrigan maintained a Buy rating for the company, with a price target of $32. The analyst believes the stock is a “free play on new film production.”

Analyst Matthew Harrigan expects Lions Gate to record adj. EBITDA of $22.3mm, down significantly from $90.4mm in F4Q15.

Results are likely to reflect a loss on Gods of Egypt. Revenue is estimated to have grown 8.9 percent to $703.3mm, driven by strong TV sales, with a pre-adjustment EBITDA loss of $13.6mm. Harrigan expects Lions Gate to report a GAAP EPS loss of $0.15, versus a profit of $0.14 in the year-ago quarter. Adj. EPS is pegged at a loss of $0.05, down substantially from a profit of $0.39 reported for F4Q15.

Film Versus TV

The analyst mentioned expectations for:

• Film sales down 7.9 percent to $460.4mm
• Television top-line spike 66.5 percent to $242.9mm, driven by Orange is the New Black
• Theatrical sales up 10.4 percent to $88.3mm
• Home entertainment down 15.0 percent to $174.0mm
• Film related TV sales down 12.0 percent to $52.0mm
• International and Lionsgate U.K. top line down 7.0 percent to $138.8mm

Free Play On New Film Production

“The current share price implicitly discounts just 5% sustainable long-term box office share with new film production margin at breakeven, or a 7.5% loss margin after arbitrary assignment of all film overhead to new production. Apart from film, we retain high confidence in Lionsgates' TV growth profile, but admit that film has to be turned around to justify owning LGF stock,” Harrigan wrote.