Amazon Could Reach $240 Billion In GMV This Year

Goldman Sachs’ Heath P. Terry believes that with third party units growing from 36 percent to 48 percent of the total at Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN over the past five years, “reported revenue growth has come to mask the true growth in Amazon’s share of retail spending.”

The analyst maintains a Buy rating on the company, with a price target of $800.

GMV Growth

Terry believes Amazon’s global GMV could cross the $240 billion mark in 2016, growing 33 percent year-on-year, from 27 percent year-on-year in 2015.

This growth is expected to be driven by third party growth across the company’s geographies and categories, as well as the incremental adoption of Fulfillment By Amazon, and consumer wall share and purchase frequency gains.

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“1Q results are further evidence Amazon’s investments in infrastructure, logistics, and web services is accelerating market share gains, cash flow growth, and continued high returns on invested capital,” Terry mentioned.

Service sales growth continues to outpace product sales growth, driven by AWS and 3P. “By our estimate, in 2014, 3P GMV surpassed 1P GMV for the first time and in 2015, global GMV grew +27 percent yoy to reach over $180 billion,” the analyst stated.

Fulfillment By Amazon

Terry also pointed out that Amazon has been increasingly fulfilling third party orders, with sellers looking to take advantage of logistics investments made by the company and of participation in Prime.

The analyst noted that according to ChannelAdvisor, Fulfillment By Amazon, as a percentage of 3P, reached 38.2 percent in 1Q16, from 32.1 percent in 1Q15.

This has allowed the company to take a larger share of third party transaction economics, while utilizing its logistics and fulfillment facilities better.