Solar Installation Data May Put Full-Year Guidance At Risk, Gordon Johnson Warns

The latest solar installation numbers indicate that 2016 could be a rough year for U.S. solar companies. Axiom analyst Gordon Johnson reported early PV pricing trends and installation rates are way off industry projections for the full year.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) just released its report on January U.S. PV capacity, which indicates that the U.S. added 409MW of capacity in the first month of the year.

“While growth y/y was robust, when dividing the Jan. ’16 total by the same proportion of annual installations realized in Jan. ’15, to account for seasonality, or 6.4 percent, we get an annualized run rate of 6.4GW for US installations in ’16 – this is 29.8 percent below our current 9.1GW est. & 60.3 percent below the 16GW est. from the US Solar Energy Industry Assoc.” Johnson explained.

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Considering negative net metering developments in Nevada and Massachusetts, Johnson believes that even Axiom’s below-consensus estimates for 2016 U.S. PV installations are likely too high.

Understandably, Axiom has a bearish outlook for solar stocks and maintains Sell ratings on the following names:

• Sunedison Inc SUNE
• JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) JASO
• Trina Solar Limited (ADR) TSL
• Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (ADR) YGE
• SolarCity Corp SCTY

Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.