Earnings: Yahoo Could Detail Reinvention; CMG and GM Also Report

High-profile companies covering the far reaches of the economy enter the earnings confessional this week. Here, we’ll focus on the reports from three: Yahoo! Inc. YHOO, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG, and General Motors Company GM—each saddled with what’s been share-moving news beyond your basic earnings results.

YHOO’s woes have been widely publicized through each quarter of Chief Executive Marissa Mayer’s three-year reign and its stock has been punished (figure 1). Activist shareholders are calling for big changes and some are insisting on a sale of the entire company. Will Mayer deliver the change that her detractors demand?

Identity Crisis?
YHOO boasts more than 1 billion users, but Bloomberg News, quoting EMarketer, notes that the search and content firm’s U.S. market share is contracting; it’s projected to drop to 3.5% in 2017 from 5.1% in 2014.

In November, Mayer said she was developing a plan to “narrow” the company’s focus. We may get a glimpse of that plan when YHOO reports Q4 results after the closing bell today. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Mayer is expected to unveil a plan aimed at slashing company costs, including the closure of several business units, and a reduction of up to 15% of its workforce.

Per-share earnings are estimated to drop 57% from the year-earlier comparable to $0.13, according to a Thomson Reuters survey. That’s on expected flat revenue of $1.2 billion.

On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control called an end to its investigations of the E. coli issues, without pinpointing the source. Investors rewarded shares in the short term, but much chart damage had already been done (figure 2).

As for this round of earnings, the Thomson Reuters survey estimate pegs profits to tumble more than 51% from the year-ago comparable to $1.86. Despite the same-store sales drop, total revenues for Q4 are projected to fall 9% from the year-ago period, to $1.1 billion. The report hits after the close today.

As for notable options activity, traders are buying the weekly 400 put options, which are pretty far out of the money, while call option buyers are lining up at the 500 and 475 strikes.

Note: Call options represent the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price and over a set period of time. Put options represent the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time.

GM’s China Sensitivity
When Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) component GM drops its earnings news before the markets open Wednesday, investors will be looking for a potential slowing China impact on the automaker’s sales, and, moreover, its future expectations.

Sales were healthy in 2015 for U.S. carmakers and GM was in “prime position” to take advantage, the Wall Street Journal reported. But what’s next? Some 52% of GM’s sales are generated in China, where purchase-tax pullbacks helped boost sales in 2015 but no longer have traction. Coupled with robust U.S. sales, industry analysts see GM weathering the year well after notable sales declines in Europe and South Africa. Can that happen again in China?

More from the WSJ: “GM executives have acknowledged that 2016 will be volatile in the world’s largest auto market, but they still expect modest growth and for Chinese consumers shopping for GM vehicles to move toward pricier luxury cars and SUVs.”

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect GM to post per-share profit of $1.20, a penny above the year-ago period. Revenue is estimated to fall to $37.9 billion from $39.6 billion a year ago.

The implied volatility on the stock is sitting in the midrange. Short-term options traders expect a potential 4% move in either direction for this stock around its earnings release, according to the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim® platform’s Market Maker Move indicator. Call option buyers are dipping into both weekly and monthly 30 strikes, while put option buyers are bunching up at the weekly and monthly 28 strike.

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