Analyst: Tesla Will Likely Announce Q4 Shipments On January 4

• Tesla Motors Inc TSLA shares are down 7 percent in the last three months.
• Global Equities’ Trip Chowdhry said that Tesla’s auto unit production and shipments are likely to have been higher than the guidance for 4Q15.

Tesla would likely announce its 4Q15 auto unit shipments on January 4, 2016. The company is expected to have delivered more than 18,300 auto units in 4Q15, analyst Trip Chowdhry said. This is towards the higher end of the guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 units.

Chowdhry observed that more than 98 percent customers opted for the auto-pilot feature, which is a $2,500 option. Moreover, dark blue was the most popular color.

Chowdhry added that ASPs appear stable, with the 'D' models seeming more popular than the 'S' models by 70:30. The 'D' models cost $5,000 extra to the customer.

Tesla had also guided to production of between 15,000 to 17,000 auto units in the quarter, and is likely to have produced between 16,500 and 17,000 units.

“During the last 45 days of this quarter, the Delivery Truck activity at the factory has been extremely strong, probably 3x of what we observed on an average in 3Q'2015,” Chowdhry wrote. He added, however, that delivery truck activity had been “extremely slow” over the first couple of weeks of the quarter.

“We think that the improved activity within the last 45 days of this quarter, more than offsets the weakness during the first 2 weeks of the quarter,” the Global Equities report noted.