Norwegian Cruise Shares Under Pressure Following Downgrade To Sell At Goldman

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  • Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH have treaded north for most of 2015, and are up 25 percent year-to-date.
  • Goldman Sachs’ Steven Kent downgraded the rating on the company from Neutral to Sell, while reducing the price target from $60 to $50.
  • Several yield related headwinds in 1H16 are expected to restrict the company’s performance, Kent said.

Analyst Steven Kent expects Norwegian Cruise’s future performance to be restricted by net yield-related headwinds in 1H16. He believes these headwinds are underappreciated by investors.

Norwegian Cruise is likely to incur increased costs as its builds out its China operations. Kent added that upside to the company’s shares would also be limited by an overhang from a potential issuance of secondary shares.

Although cruise trends have been strong, Norwegian Cruise’s performance is expected to be negatively impacted by the 24-day dry dock of Pride of America, the company’s highest yielding ship, in 1Q16.

Another headwind likely to be faced by the company is from the Norwegian Escape launch which is priced at a discount to the Oceania and Regent brands. The Goldman Sachs report noted that the redeployment of the Norwegian Epic to Europe from the Caribbean will also restrict the company’s performance.

Deceleration in Norwegian Cruise’s net yields, even though transitory, is expected to raise investor concern over the company’s ability to deliver consistent growth.

The EPS estimates for FY16 and FY17 have been reduced from $3.64 to $3.59 and from $4.74 to $4.65, respectively.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorShort IdeasDowngradesPrice TargetAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasGoldman SachsSteven Kent
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