In The Sea Of Biotechs, Anthera's Multi-Drug Pipeline Makes It Attractive

• Anthera Pharmaceuticals Inc ANTH shares are down 5 percent since August 18, remaining below the $10 mark.
• Citi’s Yigal Nochomovitz initiated coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a price target of $15.
• Although the company’s entering into a “mature” market for pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy, Nochomovitz believes channelling the drug two ways will differentiate it from the rest.

Analyst Yigal Nochomovitz said that Sollpura, which is a pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy [PERT] for cystic fibrosis [CF] patients, should “carry a non-porcine label and reduce pill burden ~2.5X vs. market leader Creon.”

Anthera Pharmaceuticals has entered a mature PERT market that is dominated by Creon. Despite this, Nochomovitz believes that the company should be able to witness significant adoption of Sollpura, given its differentiating features of “pill burden reduction for adults” and “powder formulation for paediatrics.”

Citi estimates the drug’s peak worldwide revenues at around $240MM / $330MM, on about 8 / 34 percent peak share in adult and pediatrics, respectively.

“TRx data from the launch of Creon 36 (Creon 36 provides ~3X/~1.5X reduced pill burden vs. Creon 12/24, respectively) suggest pent up demand for PERT regimens with lower pill burdens. Based on this, we assume Sollpura can launch in 2018 at ~1/3 the ramp of Creon 36, which may prove conservative,” Nochomovitz wrote.

The Phase 3 trial for Blisibimod for systemic lupus erythematosus is enrolling more severe patients who benefited in prior SLE trials. “This suggests 1) enhanced prospects for Ph3 success and 2) higher penetration of the target market vs. Benlysta,” the Citi report added.

Nochomovitz commented, “Anthera's strategy of designing around a predecessor trial has good precedent in Pharma.”