Maxim Analyst 'Concerned' Over New Apple Bear Thesis, Notes iPhone 6S Cycle Looks 'Weak'

In a report published Tuesday, Maxim Research analyst Nehal Chokshi expressed concerns over

's upcoming quarterly results, noting concerns over a "new bear thesis emerging." According to a study conducted by Chokshi in May,

continues to gain market share of operating systems, web browsers and video streaming across all devices. The analyst singled out Google's success at growing its YouTube related ad revenues to a "meaningful portion" of total revenue. As such, this will be considered a "key step" towards "undermining the stickiness" of Apple's iTunes and music services." "While it will be multiple quarters before such a trend can be validated, a failure to meet an expectations that the 6S cycle will generate up to 10 percent year over year unit growth may be the impetus to propagate a bear thesis and suggest that Apple will lose its stickiness, and ultimately its pricing leverage over carriers," Chokshi argued. The analyst continued and cited a Wall Street Journal report that may have reaffirmed his bear thesis. According to the publication, Apple asked its manufactures to supply 85 million to 90 million units of new iPhone (including Plus) devices by the end of the first quarter of 2016. Chokshi noted that his calculations suggest this marks a decrease in iPhone production as actual sales (according to the analyst) totaled 94 million units last year.

Chokshi pointed out that shares of Apple have followed the S&P 500 index since its previous earnings print, despite sell-side estimates anticipating the June quarter revenue coming in excess of the company's high end guidance. "We believe this is because the September quarter guidance is largely driven by how well Apple expects to line up its supply chain for the next generation iPhone, which has always been at an under-supply at the end of the September quarter," the analyst argued. "Guidance therefore tells us very little about actual end market demand, and as such we view the September quarter guidance largely as a "lame duck" quarter." With that said, Chokshi sees risk that Apple's guidance "will disappoint" based on the previously mentioned Wall Street Journal supply chain data points. Shares remain Hold rated with an unchanged $144 price target.