Trip Chowdhry: Tesla Will 'Very Likely' Beat Q2 Delivery And Production Guidance

In a report published over the weekend, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry detailed a recent check at

's factory and 10 Tesla stores. According to Chowdhry, Tesla will "very likely" exceed their second quarter delivery guidance of 10,000 to 11,000 units by showing total deliveries of around 11,250 units. The analyst also speculated the company produced 13,100 units in the quarter, also exceeding its prior guidance of 12,500 units. "In 2Q, we observed that on some Saturdays, Tesla Cars were on the Testing Track," Chodhry wrote. "The last step after production is complete, the Cars are put on the Testing Track. We are reasonably confident that Model S production Units could be more than 12,500 Auto units, as on some weekends Model S were being manufactured." In addition, Chowdhry suggested that the average selling price of Tesla's vehicles may be up five percent year over year as around 90 percent of shipments were "D" models which come with a higher price tag. 30 to 35 percent of deliveries were "70D" models while 50 to 60 percent of deliveries were a combination of "P85D" and "85D" models. At the same time, less than 10 percent of deliveries were Model S 85 vehicles, leading the analyst to speculate that Tesla "may pull the plug" on the model. By region, Chowdhry noted that his checks indicated "very strong" deliveries in Seattle and in Canada, with both regions registering sale increase of more than 100 percent. At the same time, New York City also saw "very strong" deliveries which were at least 75 percent higher year over year. Shares remain Overweight rated with an unchanged $385 price target.