Morgan Stanley 'Optimistic' On Keurig Green Mountain

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Morgan Stanley commented on Keurig Green Mountain Inc GMCR Friday and maintained an Overweight rating and $140 price target.

Analysts led by Matthew Grainger noted the quarter's 22 percent volume decline in brewer shipments and and that ”below-trend results” were like to continue for the remainder of 2015.

Grainger cited the drivers of the results as “residual impact from the Q1 MINI brewer recall,” an “ongoing drawdown of Vue,” and “excess inventory of Keurig 2.0 following lower than expected early-stage consumer-takeaway.”

“While the MINI brewer recall and Vue drawdown are clearly idiosyncratic issues, disappointing early-stage 2.0 results (11% POS decline in 1.0/2.0) and weaker than expected portion pack growth (+8% vs. MSe +13.5% on organic basis) both represent dynamics which will need to normalize in order to restore investor confidence in the growth outlook,” Grainger wrote.

The analysts remained “optimistic,” however, about the company’s long-term growth prospects.

To aid with top-line growth, the company will launch entry-level brewers (K200/250) and relaunch the MINI brewer, design a new marketing campaign and packaging to better communicate brand variety and compatibility, relaunch the “my K-Cup,” and revamp the 2.0 with additional features.

“After two consecutive quarters of disappointing top-line growth and downward guidance revisions, GMCR's stock price is likely to remain somewhat range-bound until results sway concerns that the recent Hot slowdown may be more secular than transitory. Despite this, we believe recent weakness has created a compelling buying opportunity,” according to Grainger.

Keurig Green Mountain recently traded at $101.53, up 3.43 percent.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorAnalyst RatingsMatthew GraingerMorgan StanleyVetr
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