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A Trans-Pacific Partnership Would Affect Retailers

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A Trans-Pacific Partnership Would Affect Retailers
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A new report by Deutsche Bank focuses on the potential Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and what it would mean for the North American footwear and apparel business.

According to the report, the agreement could have a major impact on many of the big names in the space.

What Is The Trans-Pacific Partnership?

The TPP is a potential trade agreement between the United States and 11 other countries that would eliminate tariffs. According to analysts, Vietnam is a potential key player in the negotiation process. Vietnam is currently the second largest apparel exporter to the U.S., but its exports are subject to an 11.5 percent tariff.

Other apparel exporters such as Mexico and Central American countries compete with Vietnam, but they are not subject to tariffs.

Related Link: 9 Retail Stocks Cantor Just Initiated On

Timeline

The current plan for the TPP is for Congress to vote on a bill that would fast track the TPP to the President by the third week of June. Depending on the length of the negotiation process with the 11 countries involved, analysts believe that the TPP could be put to a vote by the end of 2015, but would likely not be implemented until at least 2017.

Potential Impact

Assuming that Vietnam’s 11.5 percent tariff is eliminated, analysts estimate that Nike Inc (NYSE: NKE) stands to gain the most from the TPP and could see gross margins increase by about 4.0 percent.

V.F. Corp (NYSE: VFC), Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA), Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) and Perry Ellis International Inc (NASDAQ: PERY) could all see gross margins increase by up to 2.5 percent.

Stock Picks

Deutsche Bank lists Under Armour, Nike, and PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH) as its top footwear and apparel stock picks.

Deutsche Bank also has Buy ratings on V.F. Corp and Michael Kors Holdings Limited (NYSE: KORS). It has Hold ratings on Lululemon, Perry Ellis, Coach Inc (NYSE: COH), Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE: RL), and Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF).

Latest Ratings for NKE

DateFirmActionFromTo
Dec 2016HSBCUpgradesHoldBuy
Nov 2016WedbushInitiates Coverage OnNeutral
Oct 2016Bank of AmericaDowngradesNeutralUnderperform

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