Why Goldman Likes SeaWorld Over Six Flags

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In a report published Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts swapped their preference for Six Flags Entertainment Corp SIX with SeaWorld Entertainment Inc SEAS. The analysts downgraded the rating on Six Flags from Buy to Neutral, while upgrading SeaWorld from Neutral to Buy.

The analysts believe that the SeaWorld brand can "regain a place in the consumer’s mindset" and that the company is well positioned to benefit from the positive leisure travel trends expected in 2015.

In the report Goldman Sachs noted four factors that could drive SeaWorld's stock higher as:

  1. SeaWorld-branded parks improved 200bp sequentially from 3Q14 to 4Q14.
  2. SeaWorld Orlando’s market share appears to be bottoming and new competitor attractions in 2015 may be "relatively benign."
  3. SeaWorld's stock has "meaningfully underperformed peers" since the company's IPO in April 2013.
  4. The analysts' positive view of new CEO Joel Manby, following discussion that indicate that he has "a good understanding of the challenges the SeaWorld brand faces."

On the other hand, Six Flags' share price has reached the price target. "We continue to believe SIX is still a best-in-class operator with an extremely well-defined, consistent, and shareholder friendly strategy," the analysts said.

The company's shares have jumped 40 percent since the beginning of April, versus a 35 percent rise in the S&P 500. "SIX trades at the highest multiple in the space. While we view some premium as warranted, this leaves less room for the multiple to expand," the analysts wrote, while adding, "The company’s membership program, which helped 1Q reported per caps, could weigh on 2Q and 3Q per caps."

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Posted In: Analyst ColorUpgradesDowngradesAnalyst RatingsGoldman Sachs
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