Why Longbow Is Upgrading Red Robin (Hint: It Has To Do With The Burgers)

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In a report published Wednesday, Longbow Research analysts upgraded
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc
RRGB
from Neutral to Buy, while maintaining the price target at $99. The analysts cited better-than-expected channel checks as the reason for the upgrade. In the report, Longbow Research noted, "Red Robin system-wide same-store sales to date in 1Q15 were up in a 4.0-4.5% range, well ahead of our prior 2.0% comp growth forecast for 1Q15 and especially consensus at 1.3% growth. The 4%+ comp growth to date in 1Q15 is a particularly impressive performance off a challenging comp of 5.4% growth reported in 1Q14." "Our contacts cited a material traffic lift from lower gas prices since mid-November, a favorable weather comparison to date in 1Q15 (Red Robin has limited exposure to the Northeast), more effective advertising behind the company's core burger lineup and better than expected mix coming mainly from RRGB's Finest burger selections as the key drivers behind the better than expected sales performance since the first of the year," the analysts said. "Respondents expect an even greater traffic lift from advertising this summer," the analysts wrote, while pointing out, "Along with internal improvements recently made to Red Robin's advertising and promotional strategy, the fact that domestic box office sales last summer were the lowest in over 20 years sets the stage for RRGB to benefit from an easy comparison this summer." "Longer term, we believe Red Robin's successful brand transformation strategy will bear continued fruit in the form of accelerated same-store and new store growth over the next 18+ months. On the new store front, we are particularly excited by the opportunity for the company's fast-casual Red Robin Burger Works concept, which is expected to see accelerated unit growth by the company this year," the report added.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorUpgradesAnalyst RatingsLongbow Research
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