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Credit Suisse Has Positive Outlook On Qualcomm's NDRC Settlement & Raised Guidance

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In a Tuesday report, analyst K. Garcha of Credit Suisse raised his estimates on QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), maintaining an Outperform rating with a $80 target price. Garcha felt the resolution of the Chinese anti-trust issues is a main driver behind estimates being raised.

More Key Points From Report

  • NDRC settlement: As anticipated, QCOM announced a settlement with the NDRC, including the payment of a $975 million fine, as well as a rectification plan on future conduct and royalties for its QTL business. We believe the settlement removes a key overhang for the stock. We raise our EPS estimates 1%/4% to $5.04, $5.50 and believe that now QTL should be able to drive secular growth for the business. We maintain an OP with PT $80.
  • Guidance raised: Could prove conservative. QCOM raised revenue guidance by $150mn at the midpoint to $27.2bn and their Non-GAAP EPS by $.05 at the midpoint to $4.95, excluding the charge from the NRDC imposed fine. We believe this guidance could prove conservative as it assumes only a six month impact for FY15. Additionally, management noted it will take time to renegotiate with existing and new licensees.
  • Positive outcome: With settlement now resolved we retain our view of long term growth of 6% in unit terms and 5% in revenue terms for QTL. We believe the global rate for Chinese vendors is in excess of the 2.5% assumed in our base case valuation. We value QTL at $42/share, we assume that Qualcomm achieve a 2.5% royalty rate for Chinese vendors and that their smartphone sales share rises to 40% from 30% now. This supports our SOTP valuation of $80 ($25 for QCT and $13 net cash/share)
  • Shares of QCOM are trading higher by nearly 3 percent in pre-market trade at 68.90.

Latest Ratings for QCOM

DateFirmActionFromTo
Nov 2016Morgan StanleyDowngradesOverweightEqual-Weight
Oct 2016NomuraUpgradesNeutralBuy
Oct 2016NomuraUpgradesNeutralBuy

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Posted-In: Credit Suisse K. GarchaAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings

 

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