Imperial Capital Lowers Price Target On Green Plains On 4Q14 Preview

In a report published Tuesday, Imperial Capital analyst Matthew Farwell reiterated an Outperform rating on

, but lowered the price target from $50.00 to $30.00. In the report, Imperial Capital noted, “We are maintaining our Outperform rating on GPRE shares and lowering our one-year price target to $30 from $50. Our price target is about 20% above the recent share price. We are lowering our 4Q14 EBITDA estimate to $86mn from $98mn on lower-than-expected 4Q ethanol margins that corresponded with the drop in RBOB and oil. GPRE had locked in margins on 25% of sales as of its earnings call on 7/30/14 and subsequently locked-in another 40% during the third quarter – the company was about 50% open for November and December. We are lowering our 2015 estimates to account for an emerging oversupply that threatens to drive margins down to a breakeven level for a portion of the industry.” Green Plains closed on Monday at $25.19.