Morgan Stanley Predicts Dividend Hike, $4 Billion In Buybacks For Citigroup

In a recent report, Morgan Stanley predicted Citigroup Inc’s C 2015 capital return plan and reiterated their Overweight rating and $63.00 price target on Citigroup’s stock. The firm believes the company is in a good position going into this year’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).

ROA Target

Citi set a return on assets (ROA) target of 90 to 110 basis points for 2015, and analysts believe that the low end of that target is within reach, despite the continued low-interest environment. With smart expense management and potential benefits from asset sales such as OneMain, analysts see a potential path to an ROA of 90 basis points. However, Morgan Stanley estimates that Citi must generate 4 percent revenue growth in this challenging environment to reach that goal.

Analysts are slightly more conservative with their ROA estimates than Citi, as they project an ROA of only 84 basis points once litigation costs are included. 

Capital Return

After the embarrassing rejection of Citi’s 2014 capital return plan, analysts believe the bank will have no problem passing this year’s CCAR. However, they warn that Citi might err on the side of caution with this year's proposal, even though they have been extremely engaged with all three major regulatory teams and sport strong capital ratios. During the past year, Citi has taken several steps to eliminate some of its more complicated operations, which likely hurt them during last year’s CCAR.

Morgan Stanley analysts project Citi’s 2015 plan will include a dividend hike of $0.04 and $4 billion in buybacks, but note that there is room to the upside for those estimates.