Credit Suisse Downgrades Teradyne, Says Street Estimates Too High

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Credit Suisse downgraded Teradyne, Inc. TER from Outperform to Neutral with a $19.50 price target as analyst Farhan Ahmad assumed coverage of the stock Monday.

Ahmad expected that Teradyne’s revenues will decline more than “10 percent in 2015 due to the SoC Test market decline.”

“We are lowering our rev/EPS estimates for CY15 from $1.60bn/$1.03 to $1.44bn/$0.84 and introducing CY16 at $1.59bn/$1.07, respectively,” according to the analyst note.

The firm’s CY15/CY16 EPS estimates are now 32 percent/29 percent below the Street.

Ahmad felt that Street estimates were too high and observed that “since 2004, TER revenues have declined in every odd-numbered year by 19 percent on average (-11 percent at the very least) and have followed a pattern of Subcon CapEx which also declines in odd-numbered years."

Ahmad believed "CY15 Semi Test y/y revenue decline will be >15 percent, as 2014 revenues were stronger than usual because of” Apple Inc’s AAPL move to Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR) TSM.

The firm’s $19.50 price target represented 13x its CY16 EPS of ~$1.07, plus net cash.

Teradyne recently traded at $18.53, down 4.6 percent.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorDowngradesPrice TargetAnalyst RatingsCredit SuisseFarhan Ahmad
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