Credit Suisse Cuts Petrobras Price Target As Shares Fall 11%

Credit Suisse cut its price target on Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) PBR Monday from $14 to $7.30 and maintained a Neutral rating.

Analyst Andre Sobreira noted that “PBR has broken many promises in the past. Production targets were consistently missed. A price formula announced one year ago to de-leverage the company has so far left it more levered. This all led to declining share and bond prices.

“The new promise is now "free cash positive" and "no need for financing" – a big chance for a company coming from negative c.$15bn free-cash per year. To regain investor confidence that "it's different this time," PBR will need to provide further details and show progress quarter after quarter in our view. No small task.”

“$10bn worth of receivables, a $40bn capex budget of which c.10 percent ($4bn) are in the smaller divisions, and another 10 percent ($4bn) in exploration show that, theoretically, free-cash positive could be achievable,” according to Sobreira.

Sobreira concluded that “if (a big 'if') PBR can credibly demonstrate to investors that those [free-cash flow] promises are achievable, that would be the first step for a re-rating of the shares.”

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras recently traded at $6.32, down 11.18 percent.