UPDATE: JPMorgan Upgrades Alcoa
In a report published Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck upgraded Alcoa (NYSE: AA), raising its price target to $15.00 from $9.00.
According to the report, the upgrade reflects the impact of tightening aluminum markets and rising regional aluminum premiums on earnings.
“Our Global Commodities Research team revised their aluminum supply/demand model on January 17th following recent producer capacity curtailments and changes to their view of China's likely production profile, which reduced the team's 2014 global primary surplus estimate by 364k tonnes to a 435k tonne surplus,” the report noted. “While China should see a 1.5mm tonne surplus this year, the rest of the world should actually have a 1.1mm tonne deficit in 2014. We believe it is important to split Chinese supply from the rest of the world as we think it is unlikely that China will export a significant amount of primary metal given its 15% export tax and the central government's redoubled focus on increasing pollution controls and reducing excess industrial capacity. Additionally, the recent ban by Indonesia of bauxite exports could push Chinese primary aluminum costs (and thus prices) higher as China sourced roughly 70% of its bauxite imports from Indonesia during 2008-2011. China began building inventory and diversifying away from Indonesia since 2012 when the country's export ban and tax increase was originally slated for implementation. Current estimates place Chinese bauxite inventories at roughly one year of demand.”
AA closed Friday at $11.36 with shares trading up at 2.90 percent.
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