UPDATE: Credit Suisse Initiates Sina on Analyzed eCommerce Potential

In a report published Thursday, Credit Suisse analyst Dick Wei initiated coverage of Sina Corporation

with a Neutral rating and SOTP- based PT of $81. Credit Suisse noted that Sina and Sina Weibo should maintain its media influence in China, “particularly given Tencent has shifted its focus away from Tencent microblog to WeChat.” Weibo is expected to break even in 3Q13 and begin to turn profit with 3Q13 revenue of $59M versus cost of $50M. Wei reported that the future eCommerce potential is a leading factor in SINA's $4.2B valuation. The analyst reminded investors that the Weibo platform is looking for additional revenue sources and this could likely hurt user experience, and long term mobile monetization is uncertain. “Risks include: (i) lower- than-expected future user activity, (ii) de-rating due to failure in achieving the Alibaba alliance target or failing to achieve a social eCommerce model.” Credit Suisse valued the Sina portal at $760M and Weibo at $3B. SINA closed at $82.50 on Wednesday.