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Goldman Sets $84 Target on Tesla, Lays Out Several Models for Future

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Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) are on the move Tuesday morning following some comments from Goldman Sachs' Patrick Archambault in a sector downgrade on the Autos. The stock last traded at $116.25, down more than 8 percent from Monday's close.

Archambault laid out several cases for Tesla moving forward (however did not name the scenarios as below):

  • Bull case - total units of 200k for FY17, total sales $13.316 billion, EPS $11.69, implying $234 stock price discounted at 20 percent to reach a bull target of $113;
  • Base case - total units 150K, sales $10.05 billion, EPS $8.59, implying $172 price discounted at 20 percent for $83 target, and
  • Bear case - units 104,561, sales $7.089 billion, EPS $5.99, implying price $120 discounted for price target of $58.

The analyst averaged the total of these three cases, arriving at a six-month price target for Tesla shares of $84.

Archambault's price target represents potential downside of nearly 30 percent from where the stock is currently trading. Archambault previously had a price target of $61 on shares of Tesla. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla shares.

NOTE: Archambault downgraded his recommendation on Tesla shares from Buy to Neutral on May 9th; ahead of Tuesday's move lower, shares of Tesla had been up a jaw-dropping 88 percent since the analyst reduced his investment rating.

Latest Ratings for TSLA

Feb 2016BarclaysMaintainsUnderweight
Feb 2016Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight
Dec 2015JMP SecuritiesInitiates Coverage onMarket Perform

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