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In a report published Friday, Credit Suisse analyst Julie Yates Stewart reiterated an Outperform rating on Triumph Group
, but lowered the price target from $98.00 to $90.00.
In the report, Yates Stewart noted, “The Credit Suisse Investment Policy Committee (IPC) is removing TGI from the U.S. Focus List, as the IPC no longer considers it to be one of the firm's top ideas. The IPC originally added TGI to the U.S. Focus List on 9/14/2012. Management maintains conservative guidance practices, but magnitude of upside in question: FY'14 EPS guidance of $6.30-6.40 was below investors' expectations (~$6.60) and doesn't appear to have the same degree of upside as the last two years based on the tone of the conference call. In FY'12, TGI beat its initial guidance by 20%, and in FY'13 it exceeded it by 13%. We think there is less upside to FY'14's initial guide than in years past based on lower production for key programs resulting in flat organic growth, and a tough pricing environment. Our new FY'14E EPS of $6.52 is 3% ahead of the mid-point and +5% Y/Y. Our TP falls to $90 (from $98) on our lower estimates and we maintain our Outperform rating on a 12-month basis.”
Triumph Group closed on Thursday at $73.95.
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