UPDATE: Canaccord Genuity Reiterates Buy Rating, Lowers PT on Agrium on 4Q12 EPS

In a report published Monday, Canaccord Genuity reiterated its Buy rating on Agrium

, but lowered its price target from $129.00 to $127.00. Canaccord Genuity noted, “We expect a strong US spring planting season to benefit the retail division and the nitrogen segment. In addition, we believe the potential exists for an early spring and the resulting increase in urea pricing as a result of logistical constraints on imported product. We believe earnings should perform well through the spring due to our positive fundamental view. There's a catch though – if Jana (Agrium's largest shareholder at 7.5% ownership) is successful in electing its slate of directors to Agrium's board at the April 9 AGM, then that would state that a majority of shareholders voted them in and those shareholders likely believe that greater efficiencies or a potential sale/break-up of the company is forthcoming, and the share price should continue to increase post that election on that basis as well. However, if Jana is unsuccessful in having its directors elected, then we believe the concern out there would be that Jana may choose to sell their shares in the near future (in addition to fears of some shareholders assuming the same), and we would then expect to see pressure on the share price in the near term. We believe that some shareholders are already lowering their positions in defense of that downside share selling pressure that may be forthcoming. We further believe that explains the downside move in Agrium's shares. Personally, we do not believe Jana will be successful in having their directors nominated, and as such, we believe there will be downward pressure on the shares in the near term.” Agrium closed on Friday at $101.13.