Market Overview

BlackBerry 10 May Have Been an Enormous, Record-Breaking Flop

BlackBerry 10 (NASDAQ: BBRY) was expected to be the mobile OS that would save its maker.

Investors believed this assumption, pouring millions into the firm over the last few months. Even now, with shares declining on a weekly basis, BlackBerry is still up more than 22 percent year-to-date.

Traders were not the only ones who wanted a piece of BB10. Developers are also thought to be excited for the new platform.

"They're happy to have another platform to develop for," Jan Dawson, Ovum's Chief Telecoms Analyst, told Benzinga. "It's a good installed base that they should be able to sell into, so there will be some demand for the apps. That will be something that developers will be excited about."

That excitement may have come to a screeching halt now that the sales figures are beginning to materialize. While BlackBerry has not released the official numbers, analysts have been investigating the situation with their own channel checks. The results have not been what people expected.

"Given our store surveys indicated modest Z10 sales into the channel in the U.K. and Canada, we have reduced our February quarter BB10 smartphone shipment estimates from 1.75M units to 300K units," Canaccord Genuity wrote in a report.

"Further, we believe carrier support for BlackBerry 10 in the U.S. is modest, as demonstrated by Sprint (NYSE: S) only planning to launch the Q10 and T-Mobile only the Z10. Further, we anticipate carriers will not build large inventory levels for BB10, consistent with prior BB7 high-end launches, and will initially stock modest levels given the weaker consumer demand for high-end BlackBerry smartphones."

Canaccord Genuity went on to say that it expects BB10 to face "increasing competition from a host of new Android and Windows smartphones and potentially a new iPhone" in the first half of the year. As a result, "We anticipate global carrier partners will order cautious initial BB10 inventory levels, leading us to lower our February quarter and Fiscal 2014 BB10 estimates."

BlackBerry tech site N4BB responded to Canaccord Genuity's report with some additional sales information, arguing that its own checks have shown that the new BB10 device has sold out around the world.

Follow me @LouisBedigianBZ

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