Wunderlich Securities' Initiations for June 7, 2012
Wunderlich Securities has initiated coverage on the following companies today:
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company has built a 157,000 net acre position in the Williston basin that we believe contains some of the most productive areas of the region. We expect Kodiak to exhibit industry-leading production growth through the exploitation of this acreage in the coming years. It has solidified its balance sheet in order to provide the liquidity needed to grow production. We believe the current valuation of the stock is compelling given Kodiak trades at a discount to peers despite the expected growth in 2012 and beyond."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company focuses on boosting the production of large, mature oil fields utilizing its sizeable carbon dioxide supply. The ownership and control of carbon dioxide reserves allows Denbury to extract considerably more value out of these fields than most other companies. Denbury also has a sizeable Williston basin presence, which gives the company a profitable near-term growth driver to go along with its long-term tertiary projects. We believe Denbury shares are undervalued currently given the company's strong start to 2012, oily asset base, financial standing, and long-term growth potential."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "Berry's oily California assets provide significant cash flows that allow the company to grow its Permian and Uinta basin assets without materially outspending cash flows. The depressed natural gas environment actually helps Berry's margins due to its use of the fuel to generate its California steam floods. We see the current valuation of Berry as an opportunity given the stock trades at a discount to peers (2.8x 2013E CFPS vs. 3.9x) despite its oil focus, strong margins, and solid financials."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company has transitioned nicely from a natural gas focus toward oil in the past few years and now is a dominant player in both the Horizontal Mississippian play in Oklahoma/Kansas and the Permian basin. Funding the transition has been a concern for SandRidge in the past, but with ample liquidity currently, strong (and improving) oil production, and multi-year drilling inventory, we believe the company can now focus on execution. We expect SandRidge to exhibit significant EBITDA and cash flow growth in the coming years as it continues to develop its highly economic plays."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "Whiting has been able to build and define highly economic prospects throughout the Williston basin, Permian basin, and Niobrara formation that we believe should allow it to grow production and reserves significantly over the next few years. The recent monetization of legacy assets has also improved liquidity and reduced operating costs, which should lead to better margins and gives Whiting strong financials it can utilize to execute its growth strategy. We believe the current valuation of the stock is compelling given that it trades at a discount to peers despite Whiting's expected production growth and increasing inventory."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company is focused on oily resource plays and has already built positions in the Utica/Point Pleasant, Woodbine, Wilcox, and Mississippi Lime as well as four undisclosed oil plays. Additionally, Halcon is in the process of acquiring GeoResources, Inc. (GEOI-NR), which should nearly triple production, boost reserves, and gives the company footholds in the Williston Basin and Eagle Ford plays. We believe the growing asset base, experienced management team, and strong liquidity position should generate significantly higher earnings and cash flow growth than many of its peers."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company has acquired and is in various stages of exploration or development on assets in multiple international areas. The most valuable and understood position is in Venezuela, where Harvest has over 43.3 mmboe of proven reserves (and over 200 mmboe of 3P reserves) net to its ownership. We believe Harvest has a track record of finding, developing, and monetizing international oil resources, and that even with the added risk of operating out of the United States, at the current levels, the stock provides a compelling valuation, in our view."
Wunderlich Securities notes, "The company has been in the news lately and painted in a rather negative light, causing the share price to fall considerably during 2012 to near its 52-week lows. However, we believe the value of Chesapeake's assets at this time are simply too great to ignore given that CHK trades just above our estimate of Chesapeake's calculated proven reserve value. We expect Chesapeake to be able to fund its cash flow deficits using asset monetizations in 2012 and 2013 as it ramps up the liquids production. As investors become more confident in the growth story and focus again on the significant asset base, we look for the shares to appreciate."
Wunderlich Securities says, "Barrett built up a significant base of Rocky Mountain natural gas plays over the past few years, but due to the reduced prices of the commodity, has shifted to focus its exploration and development activities toward oil. Initial results from multiple regions have been strong and oil production continues to grow at a rapid pace for Barrett, but natural gas still represents about 90% of its production mix. While we believe the company's oil prospects look positive and that the valuation looks interesting, we are initiating with a Hold rating given the early-stage nature of the oil program and our cautious stance on natural gas prices."
Wunderlich Securities notes, "The company has focused on boosting the recovery of oil from the mature Aneth field and also has exposure to the Permian and Williston basins. Aneth's strong production levels throw off excess cash that is used to build positions in higher-growth assets, which could boost production in the future. While we like Aneth's oily production and cash flow generation, we believe that until more data (well results) from the Permian and Williston is released, it is best to remain on the sidelines as Resolute trades near peers and its growth profile could be lower than similar-sized companies until it finds a repeatable asset to develop."
Wunderlich Securities comments, "Triangle has grown from a non-operated Williston company to an operated E&P with oil field service capabilities to ensure that it can drill and complete wells in a cheaper and more timely fashion. We expect positive results from Triangle's initial four operated well completions to drive strong production growth for 2H12 and an aggressive drilling program to boost production further. At the current valuation, we believe Triangle exhibits a compelling opportunity for investors given the upcoming potential catalysts."
Wunderlich Securities notes, "The company has demonstrated industry-leading growth from its Williston Basin and Anadarko Woodford drilling programs that should continue through at least 2014 as Continental exploits its highly prospective plays. However, the company's shares trade at a significant premium (over 50%) to its peer group and we believe there is greater value in other names at these levels. Additionally, Continental is still outspending cash flows due to continual increases in activity and we expect debt levels to rise over the next two years until the company becomes cash flow neutral/positive."
Voyager Oil & Gas (NYSE: VOG) Hold, $2 PT:
Wunderlich Securities says, "The company has acquired about 33,000 net acres in the Williston Basin and also has 33,500 net acres in the Heath shale. Currently Voyager is focused on deploying capital on a non-operated basis to its Williston acreage in order to increase production and cash flows. We expect the company to exhibit significant production, earnings, and cash flow growth. However, we believe the majority of these potential increases are currently priced into the stock and potential liquidity constraints in the future make us cautious on VOG at this time."
Northern Oil & Gas (NYSE: NOG) Buy, $22 PT:
Wunderlich Securities comments, "The company has acquired over 170,000 net acres in the Williston basin, and it allows strong operators to drill and produce the wells. This means Northern can focus on acquiring additional acreage as experienced companies exploit the land. Northern has had a solid fundamental performance for the past year. However, due to external factors, the stock has been under pressure and currently trades at the lowest multiples of any sizeable Williston- focused name. We believe the selloff provides a solid entry point for what is essentially a Williston acreage mutual fund given the exposure to operators and wells throughout the region."
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