Morgan Stanley on Tobacco: Youth Smoking Rates Decline in US According to University of Michigan Study

Morgan Stanley has published a research report on the tobacco industry, citing information from a University of Michigan study saying that demonstrated further declines among youth smoking in the United States.

In the report, Morgan Stanley writes, "Although the cause is somewhat unclear, updated data from the University of Michigan “Monitoring the Future” study (which included 47,000 students and was funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse) highlights continued and substantial declines in the prevalence of smoking among US youth. For example, among students in grade twelve, the incidence of cigarette smoking in the past 30 days declined from 19.2% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2011. This was the tenth year-on-year decline in the last eleven years within this age group, with a cumulative decline in smoking prevalence from 31.4% in 2000 to 18.7% in 2011 (e.g., a 41% cumulative decline in prevalence). Similarly, among all students in grades eight, ten, and twelve, the incidence of cigarette smoking in the past 30 days declined from 12.8% in 2010 to 11.7% in 2011. If an individual does not initiate regular cigarette smoking by 18-21, it is extremely unlikely, in our view, that one will ever become a smoker."

Companies related to this report include:

Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI) Altria Group (NYSE: MO) Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM)