J.P. Morgan Raises Estimates of Warner Chilcott on Slower Franchise Share Erosion Assumptions

J.P. Morgan says that it views the approval of Atelvia, the next-generation version of once weekly Actonel, as removing the one of remaining overhangs on Warner Chilcott

shares. “Because of Atelvia's superior dosing profile and a long lead until Actonel patent expiration, we believe Warner Chilcott will be able to convert a meaningful portion of the Actonel once-weekly franchise to Atelvia over time,” J.P. Morgan writes. “With an Atelvia label highlighting reduced food effect coupled with a highly motivated Warner Chilcott sales force, we have moderated our share loss assumptions for the Actonel/Atelvia franchise. Our revisions result in a $0.07 increase to our 2011 estimates and a $0.10 increase to our 2012 estimates.” Warner Chilcott currently trades for $24.03.