Bookkeeping: Cutting AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA) in Half on Earnings Spike

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good - but always preferable to be both.

Mid month we cut back our position in AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA) by half on a spike around $23.  Since then as the stock has fallen back we've made some small purchases, including one this week in the $20s to get our position size back up - nothing big enough in any one batch to mention.

Since I had just added to the position Tuesday, I did not have a stop loss in yesterday, so unlike quite a few other names yesterday we did not lower our exposure on a quick break of the 50 day moving average. Yesterday was so busy I also did not realize earnings for ASIA were out after the bell (usually I'll cut back a position ahead of earnings to reduce risk); so lo and behold I was scratching my head to see the stock up 15% this morning.  Obviously whatever they reported was good; I have not had time to dig into the numbers but I'm going to take this opportunity to repeat the trade from 2 weeks ago and cut half the stake ...again around $23.  Groundhog Day.

Technically, while I sold the stock (assuming the market holds up) should have potential to low $24s at which point its behavior will tell us more.

I'll edit this post later in the day with some color on earnings.  First glance analysts expected $69M in revenue, 29 cents in EPS.  Looks like they actually missed on revenue but hit the EPS figure.  More important is guidance - analysts were in for $62M in revenue with 20 cents EPS next quarter, while ASIA is now guiding $70-$72M in revenue and 28/29 cents in EPS.

[Aug 11, 2009: Bookkeeping - Beginning Placeholder Stake in AsiaInfo Holdings]
[Aug 7, 2009: Niche Play on China Telecom - AsiaInfo Holdings]

Long AsiaInfo Holdings in fund; no personal position