Excerpt From Alchemy Live Real-Time Stream 3/19/2010

 Last Call: Here They Come Again  3/19/2010  3:50 PM

I had some of the ProFunds Ultrashort S&P 500 in my IRA held directly with them, and I sold it all.

The reason is that if we get a rally Monday -- typically a merger Monday lately with "risk on" -- I won't be able to get out except at the close, and potentially lose money.

I'd like to see a close on the low, but here comes the cavalry and those S&P futures have bounced 4 points from the low of 15 minutes ago.

Back to update this weekend, and good luck into the close

Stephen

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3:36   -900 Tick....haven't seen this in a couple years....it feels that way 

3:32  -1120 Tick......new low of day.....

3:10  The 5 Minute charts aren't showing anything new, we're in a Trend Down Day that's stabilized by going sideways. It's become boring again.

3:00  Final Lap

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2:47  There are many different Sentiment Polls, but I remember how inflated the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Poll got in late January -- it was a great tell and we don't have that right now, inflated sentiment....so this makes me think being too bearish here could be painful. Could be wrong, of course, but that's what I'm focusing on at the moment

2:30  I sold 1/2 of the Spiders, DXDs, and QIDs......Monday's are usually Risk On rally days.....it's all very hard to prepare for. Equities are not tasting the whip like you think is necessary, but I don't want to be heavily short......or long. Confusing.

2:22  Had to know someone was going to attempt to rally this market and here it is....has anyone ever seen Blankfein and Geithner in the same room together?

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2:00  Final Laps

1:33  Anthony From Brooklyn asks a good question -- is this selling all they need to let the bulls control things again next week. Is it over?  The "correction"? One thing I'd say is that if sentiment was really pushed to a bullish extreme I'd be prone to believe that there's more selling coming. But sentiment hasn't reached that point of froth like it did in January

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1:12  5 Minute ETFs

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  Bears Need To Step It Up   3/19/2010  11:45 AM

The DJIA is down all of 50 basis points.....call a Doctor.

Selling is more intense in individual issues, and I have a few of them undergoing that stress, but overall this isn't too exciting.

No doubt we'll be treated to a big attempt at a rally later in the day, whether the master puppeteers in Washington are pulling the strings, or possibly underinvested hedge funds think they need to buy this dip.

Hope you are faring well and see you after lunch.

Stephen

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11:29  -1000 Tick

11:23  5 Minute ETFs

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10:56  QQQQs and IWMs have taken out 21 Minute Sell TDSTs....Spider not yet

10:45  Gold has been shattered and is approaching $1100 again.....it's just not time for this trade yet in my view......people who followed macro hedgies into Gold and Gold equities are learning some lessons. Those guys have very deep pockets and can withstand this. They may even be out for all we know, although that's doubtful in Paulson's case

11:09  Minor pullback so far, but the DeMark Sell TDST on 120 Minute Dow Diamonds is probably kicking in.....often takes a few bars

10:16  At the bottom of this Page you can see that the elements for a Trend Day were in place coming in today

10:11  Bulls who took the twitching worm on that open got gaffed.....feels like this thing wants to roll over, but we'll see...have seen that script before and the dipsters always come in

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 Last Call:  Bonkers   3/18/2010  3:35 PM

"When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director. I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said 'This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down?' That comment acted as a spur. Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock's price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don't know what makes their particular stocks go up and down." -- Stanley Druckenmiller, Market Wizards

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There are currently net decliners of -1000 on the NYSE and Nasdaq, but the DJIA is up, so you know how the scribes at the Press Club Bar will file the story.

Yes, they're clueless, a danger to the casual investor who just reads the market recaps each day, and I think they should be tested and licensed before being permitted to report about market action.

Meantime, it was a very strange day in terms of intraday action -- some of the metrics I watch went completely bonkers, and I don't know why.

That kind of thing concerns me and gets my antenna up.

Here comes the late day surge it seems.

Back to update, and good luck into the close

Stephen

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