Kevin Wilbur, Chief Market Strategist And Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist
Both the month of August and this coming week are very important periods cyclically this year in the gold and silver metals markets.
Technical support in the gold metals market in the significant 4-Year Presidential Cycle EchoVector, and in the 2-Year Congressional Cycle EchoVector, and in the Annual Cycle EchoVector, and in the 6-Month Bi-Quarterly Cycle EchoVector all converge this coming week.
Technical support and price lift the second half of this year are important. Especially in further constructing this year as a basing year. Without sufficient price support and seasonal price lift this year the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Price Momentum EchoVector could easily pivot clockwise into negative slope momentum adding further downward technical weight and price pressure to the gold metals market.
The historically stronger period of seasonal support within the annual cycle of gold and silver prices is about to begin. It, along with perceived overbought stock market prices and potentially looming and coming correction, added to recently announced further Federal Reserve Bank Bond Purchase Tapering, may lead some sidelined gold and silver traders to again re-consider potential prospects for additional risk-on positions in gold and silver.
The shorter Quarterly EchoVector and Monthly EchoVector both add little support to gold and silver prices and price lift at this juncture, so stops are particularly warranted in risk-on positions.
This week is a particularly important week in the gold and silver metals markets on a technical echovector pivot point price analysis basis. Gold and silver metals prices have been basing this year after significant price declines last year from their lofty 2ND-half year 2011 and 2012 prices. Many gold and silver bulls are hoping this year's relative price action is setting the stage for a return to the trend of year-over-year price gains, and are looking positively towards this month as what is historically the beginning of 2ND-half year seasonal price strength to support their aspirations for stronger gold and silver prices forward.
This week also marks the anniversary of a very prescient set of article's I wrote on this subject in the summer of 2013. In these articles I focused on a cyclical price momentum echovector pivot point price projection framecharts from an EchoVector Price Analysis Perspective reviewing them for the possible occurrences of annual price symmetries that might be forming, and these formation's potential trading implications forward. This year the gold and silver metals markets are setting up once again for an important August month, and this coming week's coming price action appears in focus as particularly significant.
The following GLD ETF EchoVector Pivot Point Price Analysis FramechartS reveal very interesting recent price action. They highlight how the annual time cycle price momentum echovector recently pivoted clockwise, from positive to negative slope rate directional momentum (the longer solid white line compared to the longer solid red line that begin later and is highlighted in this chart). However, they also note how this past Friday's "closing price annual cycle price momentum echovector (AEV)" is pivoting counter-clockwise back again from these previously "clockwise pivoting" momentum echovector slope rates, at the margin. This can be seen in the next solid white annual echovector that follows the previous two annual cycle echovectors mentioned, also reading along time from left to right.
A forecast scenario opportunity for short-term long positioning uplift in the first half of this coming week may soon become apparent and timely, particularly on the annual echovector basis. Note also how the solid yellow bi-quarterly echovector (in solid yellow) also currently supports this thesis as well.
The approaching week's echovector pivot point strength does not end with the annual echovector either. EchoVector Pivot Point Strength in the bi-quarterly cycle echovector (2QEV), the annual cycle echovector (AEV), the 2-year congressional cycle echovector (CCEV), and the 4-year presidential cycle echovector (PCEV) all converge. This could be considered quite technically positive for the potential for price lift forward.
The shorter quarterly cycle echovector (QEV), however, provides little support to lift, and the monthly cycle echovector (MEV) actually countervails lift. So stops are particularly warranted among venturing long side risk-on position potential pursuers..
How the longer term time cycle echovector pivot point price projection strengths play out against the relative weakness in the shorter term cycle echovectors, particularly right after key monthly options expiration, will be very interesting in its impact on the formation of price momentum levels and subsequent price echovector weights and tracks for the second half of this year, and well into next year too.
1-YEAR DAILY OHLC
ANNUAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHART PERSPECTIVES AND TRADER'S EDGE PRICE GUIDEMAP HIGHLIGHTS
2-YEAR DAILY OHLC
CONGRESSIONAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHART PERSPECTIVE AND TRADER'S EDGE PRICE GUIDEMAP HIGHLIGHTS
4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHART PERSPECTIVES AND TRADER'S EDGE PRICE GUIDEMAP HIGHLIGHTS
1. THE GLD ETF ANNUAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHARTS: The longer solid yellow lines are bi-annual echovectors and the longer solid red, green, pink and blue-purple are annual echovectors. The shorter solid yellow lines are bi-quarterly echovectors. Notice the price updraft that follows next week well into August Options Expiration Week (3RD Trading Week of August) for both the annual echovector and the bi-quarterly echovectors.
2. THE GLD ETF 2-YEAR CONGRESSIONAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHARTS: The longer solid yellow echovectors are 2-year congressional cycle echovectors, and the solid red, green, pink and blue-purple lines that are half as long are annual echovectors . Notice that the price updraft that follows next week well into August Options Expiration Week (3RD Trading Week of August) for both the annual echovector and the bi-quarterly echovectors also occurs in the 2-year congressional cycle echovector. Also notice that both the key "end of May" 1-year pink annual cycle price momentum echovector and "end of May" 2-year yellow congressional cycle price momentum echovector key are both parallel and overlap and their echobackdates are well in phase, and Friday's closing price annual cycle and congressional cycle echovectors are well coordinated with them as well.
3. THE GLD ETF 4-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHARTS: The very long solid green and solid white lines are 4-year price momentum echovectors (Presidential Cycle). This coming week's key green presidential cycle slope momentum price echovector and its support extension (dotted green), and its extension intersect with other key echovectors this month are of key interest.
4. THE GLD ETF 4-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHARTS: Without sufficient price lift in the second half of this year, the 4-year presidential cycle price momentum echovector could pivot clockwise to negative, not the best prospect for gold or silver bulls.
At this key time, as we enter what is typically the beginning of seasonal price strength in gold, my suggestion is to remain nimble, and be ready to take advantage of cyclical echovector pivot point long opportunities as well as potential echovector pivot point short opportunities, while also remaining protected with stops. And, to the more advanced trader, I would suggest even being tactically ready, in the event of relative counter-cyclical occurrences, to have order protocols already constructed and inputted that would readily trigger position polarity reversals as market price action dictated.
One way to accomplish this would be to set up an active and adjustable OTAPS-PPS position polarity switch and straddle to manage your gold or silver metals market exposure to any potential changes in the price level momentum with regard to your targets and forward outlook. Setting straddles at momentum echovector switch level prices is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade and position management strategy.
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the GLD and/or related ETFs or Ultras. By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") at, for example, $124.50 on the GLD, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below this example target price switch level ($124.50 on the GLD) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.
To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above the target price switch level ($124.50 on the GLD)) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.
This coming week may be a very good time to employ this market straddle and this more advanced trade technology switch and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the current echovector analysis framecharts of the gold metals market.
Thanks for reading. And Godspeed in your gold and silver metals market investing.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST
Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.
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