Another Weak Earnings Season Coming to an End - Earnings Outlook

The follwing is an excerpt from this week's Earnings Trends article.  To see the full article, please click here.

Another Weak Earnings Season Coming to an End
 
First-quarter results from the Retail sector in recent days have been even weaker than what we saw from other sectors. As with other weather exposed sectors, most retailers predictably cited the tough weather at the beginning of the quarter for their underperformance. But the sector seems to be fighting more than just weather, as barring a few exceptions most of them didn't have much positive to say about the current and coming quarters either.

No doubt, the Retail sector has been the weakest among the 16 Zacks sectors year to date in terms of price performance – stock prices for the Retail sector stocks are down -5.8% year to date vs. a gain of +2.9% for the S&P 500 as a whole.  

The Q1 earnings season is almost over, with results from only 15 S&P 500 members still awaited at this stage. The reporting cycle has ended for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors and even the Retail sector now has Q1 results from 94.8% of the sector's total market capitalization. As such, the remaining reports are unlikely to change the Q1 earnings picture in any meaningful way.

What we saw this earnings season was anemic growth and continuation of the negative guidance that has become a recurring theme quarter after quarter for more than a year now.

This didn't come as a surprise, as earnings growth has been hard to come by for some time and Q1's unique issues only added to those pre-existing challenges. Weather became a recurring theme in everything related to Q1. The U.S. economy's growth numbers for the quarter provided a good context for the earnings performance of Wal-Mart WMT, FedEx FDX and many others in Q1. With respect to the economy, however, more recent economic data is pointing towards improved growth momentum from Q2 onwards, even though the pathway to the more aggressively optimistic GDP growth estimates is unclear at this stage.

We are not seeing anything comparable on the earnings front, with estimates for the current period starting to follow the trend that has been in place for almost two years now – they are going down. This is a trend that has been in place for almost two years now, with the pace expected to accelerate further in the coming days.

Q1 Scorecard (as of May 22nd, 2014)

We now have Q1 results from 485 S&P 500 members that combined account for 97.6% of the index's total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 485 companies are up +1.3% from the same period last year on +2.7% revenues, with 67.8% beating EPS estimates and 51.8% coming out with positive revenue surprises.

The two sets of charts below – the first comparing total earnings growth for these 485 companies with what these same companies reported in 2013 Q4 and the 4-quarter average and the second comparing the beat ratios – compare the results thus far with other recent quarters.

Q1 Growth Compared

• The Q1 earnings season has ended for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors. Total earnings for the 485 S&P 500 companies that have reported results are up 1.3%, with 67.8% beating earnings expectations. Revenues for these companies are up 2.7%, with a revenue ‘beat ratio' of 51.8%.
• The performance from these companies, particularly earnings, is weaker than what we have seen from this same group of companies in recent quarters, with Finance as the major drag.
• Results from the Retail sector have been very weak. Total earnings for the 94.8% of the sector's total market capitalization that have reported results already are up only +0.4% on +3.2% higher revenues. Earnings surprises were predominantly negative for retailers, with only 42.1% of the companies beating earnings estimates, the lowest in the S&P 500. It wasn't all weather, as most of them guided lower for the current and coming quarters as well.
• The Finance sector shifted gear this quarter, becoming a drag on aggregate growth after being a growth driver for many quarters. Bank of America is a big reason for the sector's weak growth this quarter, but the sector's total earnings growth would be weak relative to other recent quarters even after excluding Bank of America from the numbers. Finance sector stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 index in price action as well, with the average Finance sector stock up +2% year to date vs. +2.9% gain for the index as a whole.
• Excluding the Finance sector, total earnings for the rest of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q1 results would be up +3.6% on +3.3% higher revenues and modestly higher margins. This is actually modestly better than the growth performance we have been seeing from this ex-Finance cohort in recent quarters as well. Gilead's GILD strong results and its impact on the Medical sector has materially helped this ex-Finance growth picture.
• Apple AAPL and Facebook FB had strong Q1 results, though overall results for the Technology sector are not materially better than what we had seen in the preceding quarter. Total earnings for the 91.2% of the sector's total market capitalization that have reported results are up +4.5% on +3.1% higher revenues, with 70.5% of the companies beating EPS expectations and 63.9% beating revenue estimates.
• The Utilities sector has been the best performer in the S&P 500 year to date in terms of stock price performance – up +8.7% vs. a gain of +2.9% for the index as whole. The sector has also been a strong performer on the earnings front in Q1, with total earnings for sector up +18.0% on +11.2% higher revenues and 73.5% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 82.4% coming ahead of revenue estimates.       
• The composite Q1 picture for the S&P 500, combining the actual results from the 485 companies with estimates for the 15 still to come, is for earnings to be up +1.3% from the same period last year, on +2.7% higher revenues on essentially flat margins. Sequentially, total earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to be down -3.6%, with the overall level of total earnings for the index the lowest in a year.
• The consensus expectation is for the Q1 earnings season to be the low point of this year's earnings picture, both in terms of total earnings as well as the growth rate. Total quarterly earnings reached an all-time record in 2013 Q4, but are expected to fall short of that level in 2014 Q1. Expectations for the coming quarters reflect a strong ramp up, with each of the following three quarters a new all-time record.
• Guidance has overwhelmingly been negative in recent quarters and we saw the same trend in place with the Q1 reports as well. The weak outlook from Wal-Mart WMT and Target TGT is just the latest in a long line of companies guiding lower for the current and coming quarters.
• Total earnings in Q2 are currently expected to be up +4.3% (down from +5.5% in early April), followed by growth rates of +6.8% in Q3 and +10.5% in Q4. For the full year, total earnings are expected to be up +6.8% in 2014 and +11.5% in 2015.
• The bottom-up ‘EPS' estimate for the S&P 500 for 2014 currently stands at $116.17, while the top-down estimate for the year is currently at $117. For 2015, the bottom-up estimate remains at $129.59, with the top-down estimate from Wall Street strategists remains at $125.

To see the full Earnings Trends report, please click here.