Will Pfizer (PFE) Disappoint This Earnings Season? - Analyst Blog

Pfizer Inc. PFE is scheduled to report first quarter 2014 results before the opening bell on May 5. Last quarter, Pfizer had posted an earnings surprise of 5.66%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Pfizer has delivered positive earnings surprises in the last three quarters with an average beat of 4.31%.

Although revenues will continue to be impacted by the loss of exclusivity of Lipitor as well as the expiration of a few co-promotion agreements, products like Celebrex, Inlyta, Xalkori, Xeljanz and Eliquis should continue to perform well. Lyrica, which has billion-dollar potential, will remain the key growth driver.

Meanwhile, cost cutting efforts and share buybacks should boost the bottom line.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Pfizer is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Pfizer is -1.82% since the Most Accurate estimate is $0.54 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $0.55.

Zacks #4 Rank (Sell): Pfizer's Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) has little effect on the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #4 when combined with a negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements, i.e., a positive Zacks Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3.

Allergan, Inc. AGN has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Allergan will report first quarter earnings on May 7.

Mallinckrodt plc MNK has an Earnings ESP of +5.06% and holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Mallinckrodt will report second quarter fiscal 2014 earnings on May 8.

Perrigo Company plc PRGO has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and holds a Zacks Rank #2. Perrigo will report third quarter fiscal 2014 earnings on May 7.