Can the S&P500 Leave 1850 Behind? - Real Time Insight - Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP)

The S&P500 is the broad U.S. market index I watch closely. The reason for that? It is the best constructed index. It has 10 balanced sectors. 500 great large cap companies are included in a reasonably equal fashion -- market capitalizaton style.

On the first of January 2014, this index started its New Year at 1850. If you closely inspect the chart for the past three months, it becomes clear. Roughly, a plus or minus 2 percent band from 1820 to 1880, has been a force to reckon with. The one exception has been the short-lived Argentine Peso crisis. The S&P500 got down to 1750 briefly.

Looking back at much earlier charts, it is not a surprise to see a sideways S&P500 returns quarter come about after four straight quarters of rising S&P500 stocks.

One -5% down move. Take it out as an anomaly.

Conclusion: We are in a range-traded market.

Bulls see the ongoing march of strong underlying fundamentals. Macro forces playing out beneath earnings growth. They keep the market up. The latest unemployment claims number yesterday at 311,000 is very bullish on job creation.

The Bears say valuations are too rich. Bears sell the pricy, high beta small cap growth stocks; the biotechs; the volatile international stocks; the story stocks like Tesla. Utilities have been the market leader over the quarter -- largely by default. They pay a higher cash dividend.

Short interest on the S&P500 is very high right now. Yet, that can be taken as a contrarian indicator.

What's up? Better put, what catalyst is going to get the S&P500 out of its range?

I ask the question all investors have...

My RTI Question: What is Needed to Get the S&P500 to Leave 1850 Behind?

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