Can Conns (CONN) Beat Q4 Earnings? - Analyst Blog

Conns Inc. CONN, the electronics retailer, is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2014 results on March 27, 2014. In the last quarter, it posted a positive surprise of 12.7%. Let us see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors this Past Quarter

Conns posted better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2014 results. The solid top and bottom-line performances were primarily driven by strong consumer demand for furniture, mattresses and computers. Last month, the company came up with its preliminary results for the fourth quarter, which was not that good. Subsequent to this, Conns trimmed its earnings forecast for fiscal 2014 as well as fiscal 2015 owing to the sluggish electronics sales and higher provision for bad debt (triggered by higher charge-offs, accounts receivable and delinquency rates). Moreover, with the announcement of preliminary results, management provided earnings guidance range of 75–80 cents per share for the fourth quarter.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Conns is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: ESP for Conns is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 78 cents coincides with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Zacks Rank #4 (Sell): Conns' Zacks Rank #4 when combined with a zero ESP makes surprise prediction difficult. We caution against stocks with a Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements:

G-III Apparel Group Ltd. GIII has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

CarMax Inc. KMX has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Zep Inc. ZEP has an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).