Technical Forecast for Energy Futures
March Brent held above 114.71 and unexpectedly broke 115.92 continuing higher through 116.55 to reach 117.23. However we have not managed a close above last week’s high of 117.07 and could see a drift lower to 116.14 now. The market looks very over bought so a break lower is possible for 115.50/40 but good support here could hold the downside. Any longs will need a stop below 114.90 for 114.40/25 as the next support area.
117.07/23 is resistance but a break through here targets 2012 second half highs at 117.95. With the market so overbought this should hold the top side and offer a selling opportunity but stops needed above 118.40. We could then stretch to 119.80/120.00.
Nat Gas has broken resistance at 3.374/386 closing the gap towards 3.426 and we have topped out here as predicted. We exited longs and tried shorts with a stop above 3.445 and so far this
trade is working as we look to take profit towards 3.390/3.375 support. This may mark the low but a break could then target 3.350/45 then 3.310 today.
A break above 3.445 however signals continued strength to a target of 3.478. This should offer a good selling opportunity today with a stop above 3.485.
Gasoil got closer to 998.50 support then rocketed higher from 999 to beat 1008 resistance as predicted, hitting out next target of 1014/16. We advised to watch for profit taking here and the
chance of a small pullback and we topped at exactly 1015 pulling back to 1010/08 support so far, but below we could see 1003 today. Chance of a low here but if we continue lower look for 999 to exit any remaining shorts. We can try longs down to 997.25/996.50 expecting a bounce with a stop below 995.
1014/16 remains tricky resistance but if we break higher we should then close a gap at 1021.
WTI Crude Oil reached for 96.90/97.00 where we tried shorts with a stop above 97.35 and this trade is working well with prices topping at 97.07. Support today at 96.44 but we could break
below here for a retest of Monday’s low of 95.89 for profit taking on our shorts. However be aware that a break lower will confirm a head & shoulders top with last week’s low and the 21 day
moving average at 95.45/35 then the target of 94.90/80 expected to be tested. This should be a very good buying opportunity today with a low expected if we fall this far but later in the week
93.85 looks achievable.
A break above 97.40 should trigger stops on shorts for a run back up to 97.74 with 98.24 highs above.