EIA Boosts Oil

Today's Idea

Yesterday's EIA number was a welcome reprieve for bulls, who have seen a bevy of bearish economic data of late. Fundamentals for the Oil market remain extremely mixed at the moment. Economic indicators have been negative, and the US Dollar has held its ground versus other major currencies. On the other hand, central banks continue pumping-up the money supply, and supplies of higher quality Crude Oil remain tight, despite the relatively high overall supply. Technically, it seems as though the 95 level could provide a base for prices. The chart does show that price could be vulnerable to selling pressure if the $95 level is breached. Given the expensive option premiums at the moment, some traders may look to wait on the sidelines and wait for chart confirmation to enter into a mini Crude Oil contract. Some traders may wish to consider shorting a July Mini Crude Oil contract on a close below 95.00, with a downside objective of 89.00 and a stop at 97.50. The trade risks roughly $1,250 and has a maximum profit of around $3,000.

Fundamentals

Crude Oil prices rebounded yesterday after the EIA showed a surprise decline in inventory levels. The market has seen extremely erratic price action over the past week or so, which is a sign of indecision. Some have seen the sharp drop from recent highs over the $113 level as excessive, which has prevented prices from falling below the $95 level. At the same time, there is not enough bullish activity to solidly bring the contract back above the $100 level. The bullish enthusiasm over the EIA number could be short-lived, as the overall supply of Crude Oil remains relatively high. Also, recent economic indicators have given traders little reason to become optimistic about the economic situation in the US. The housing market in the US looks as though we may be in regression, and the overall economy is still on shaky ground. In Europe, the EU has had to tackle mounting debt, which could result in the greenback stabilizing versus the Euro. Some traders remain optimistic about Oil prices, though, noting that the summer driving season officially kicks off later this month. Also, while supplies of Oil remain high, higher quality low- sulfur Oil remain tight. Given the differing opinions over the Crude Oil market and lack of consensus, price action figures to remain erratic in the near-term.

Technical Notes

Turning to the chart, we see the July Crude Oil finding support near the 95.00 level. Prices traded down to this level three times in recent sessions, but were not able to break through. Price action has gravitated toward the 100-day moving average over the past week. Solid closes below the average would suggest that prices are vulnerable to further declines. The crossover of the 20 and 50-day moving averages can be seen as negative for prices. The RSI remains near oversold levels, suggesting near-term price support.

Rob Kurzatkowski, Senior Commodity Analyst